【Abstract】This is a research outcome of the project conducted by IMI and KIEP. The copyright belongs to KIEP.This paper first reviews the trade structure between China and the Republic of Korea (hereafter referred as Korea) and the two countries’ international capital flow. Then it discusses the effect of the Federal Reserve rate on UIP in both China and Korea, which turns out to be uninfluential through our analysis. Then we use VAR model and the extended model, the multivariate GARCH-DCC model to examine interaction between different factors. The result shows that positive-legged equity return would induce outflow and flow positively affects equity return. Sharp offshore RMB devaluation would cause domestic market plummets and higher legged spread means higher carry trade return. Besides, in the respect of capital control effects, offshore RMB devaluation would cause spread to be wider because of inelasticity of the onshore RMB rate. Carry trade return has positive and significant intercept. Finally, we argue that although the appreciation of USD has little impact on bilateral trade between China and Korea in short time, in long run, currency risk exists and it may cause significant fluctuations in the trade. We suggest that China and Korea should gradually use local currency to price their trade.

【Keywords】Bilateral trade, UIP, VAR model, multivariate GARCH-DCC model, RMB, Capital flow

【Authors】Gang Jianhua, IMI research fellow, associate professor, School of Finance, RUC Qian Zongxin, IMI research fellow, associate professor, School of Finance, RUC Zhang Chao, IMI research fellow, Treasury & Financial Market Department, China Development Bank Zhang Jiarui, IMI research fellow, International Research Fellow, China Europe Internationa Business School (CEIBS)

【IMI Research Report No. 1601 [EN]】The Effect of Changes in the U.S. Monetary Policy on China’s Capital Market Stability and Trade between China and Korea