The article was first published on OMFIF on  Apr 15th 2025.

Kirstie Spence is Principal Investment Officer for the Capital Group Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt LUX Fund.

It is difficult to determine the precise impact of tariffs on emerging market economic activity. There are too many moving parts, including the possibility of negotiated reductions, retaliatory actions by US trading partners and fluctuations in the currencies of affected economies.

That said, we can look at the current level of tariffs and exports to the US to give us an idea about the extent of EM gross domestic product that is at risk (see Figure 1). Economic theory suggests that tariffs should lead to weaker exports and reduce domestic inflation in the tradable goods sector.

First-order impact

Based on the level of tariffs as of 8 April, Asia will bear the brunt, with Latin America coming off better. Elsewhere, Central and Eastern Europe countries have limited trade with the US, so any direct impact will be relatively muted. Most Middle Eastern countries are only facing the baseline tariffs, while energy might be excluded. Africa is a mixed bag, with some markets at or close to the baseline and others more significant.

There is also a more indirect impact that will be felt by countries that are more trade-orientated and integrated in global supply chains. Tariffs will result in a drag to the overall trade cycle, reducing exports and growth. Asia will be in the firing line, given trade links with China, but also CEE and Türkiye given their links to the European Union.

Secondary effects

Secondary effects are likely to dominate EMs through the following channels.

Slower US growth is expected, but there is a possible upside from China stimulus. Higher US import prices will negatively impact domestic consumers, while the uncertainty around tariffs might cause businesses to postpone investment and hiring. Slower US/global growth (and potentially a recession) has the potential to impact EM countries through weaker demand for exports, lower tourism and remittances. That said, a significant stimulus package from China, if it materialises, could offset some of the weakness in US growth.

Oil prices have dropped, which will affect EM countries differently. Saudi Arabia is the most exposed among Gulf Cooperation Council economies, while the United Arab Emirates remains the most diversified. Meanwhile, lower oil prices will be a significant positive for the big energy importers like India and Türkiye, where the benefits could outweigh the negative impact of slower US growth.

Lower EM inflation looks likely. Unlike the US, which is facing higher inflation risks, tariffs might heighten deflationary pressure in China, which may then spill over to other EMs. With Chinese exporters increasingly excluded from the US market, Chinese goods might be redirected to other countries, thereby lowering prices in those economies. Weaker global growth and lower commodity prices may also lead to lower EM inflation.

Market sentiment is currently weak, but core EM should be resilient. The last few years have seen a bifurcated EM universe emerge, consisting of higher-rated core EM countries and lower-rated frontier economies. Lower-rated economies may struggle with a prolonged downturn in market sentiment, with some of them only regaining access to international markets fairly recently. The more developed core countries, meanwhile, have altered their borrowing characteristics to become less reliant on short-term foreign borrowing than in the past. Many of these countries have strong enough external balance sheets and access to capital to withstand any volatility.

With tariffs specifically, markets will also be determining which EMs have a higher share of household consumption in their GDP and a higher share of services in their export basket, as well as those that have the fiscal and monetary headroom to support their economies if needed.

Investing in this environment  

EM credit: EMs with lower external vulnerabilities and smaller internal imbalances offer greater market resilience and more flexibility for policy-makers to address external risks. That said, spreads are generally fairly tight in these higher-rated economies. Currently, we see opportunities in certain Latin American corporates, where companies are expected to have a competitive advantage due to the relatively lower tariffs imposed. Additionally, the companies and sectors we favour are generally not overly dependent on the US.

Exchange rates: In theory, the dollar should be stronger because there is greater demand for US dollars and lower demand for foreign currencies. But longer term, tariffs may reduce US growth, leading to lower real rates, which both tend to weaken the dollar. Current dollar weakness most likely reflects the lack of clarity on tariffs and their impact on US growth.

As well as any impact from the dollar, EM currencies could be more directly impacted through the trade channel and growth concerns/market sentiment. Regionally, EM Asian currencies might weaken the most, especially if this supports exports in the face of tariffs. CEE could fare better given their higher correlation to the euro, while Latin American currencies could outperform given the region’s relatively better outcome.

EM local currency debt: During the pandemic, many major EM central banks allowed weaker currencies and cut interest rates to support growth. We could see a similar approach now, especially given current levels of real rates, inflation dynamics, lower commodity prices and the softening dollar. More developed EM countries might focus more on their domestic mandates, relying less on guidance from the Federal Reserve.

We anticipate the most policy easing in Asia, where inflation is at or below target levels and real interest rates remain in restrictive territory. There are several opportunities in Asian duration, particularly in Indonesia, which offers high real rates and stable low inflation. India’s large deficits are mitigated by local funding and a multi-year tightening trend, making it an attractive option for longer-duration investments.

We also see duration opportunities in Latin American countries. Mexico and Brazil are particularly noteworthy, both offering relatively high yields. Mexico is experiencing a slowdown in inflation and economic activity, combined with a relatively stable currency, which should pave the way for further rate cuts. Brazil has historically been less affected by tariff-induced volatility due to its relatively closed economy, and aggressive rate hikes have helped stabilise its macroeconomic environment.

Overall, the high carry of select EM positions should provide a sufficient income cushion against any meaningful slowdown in global growth.