Tharakorn Wusatirakul: COVID-19 Outbreak Impact

2020-03-09 IMI

This article was first published by National Academy of Development and Strategy of RUC on March 4, 2020. Dr. Tharakorn Wusatirakul, Deputy Director of Thailand China The Belt and Road Cooperation Research Center. Even though the COVID-19 epidemic is under control, we are currently unable to predict its final impact on the market, but according to the current situation of the global epidemic, it will have an impact on the global economy and trade. The important speech delivered by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the conference on coordinating and advancing the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic and social development let the world see China's confidence in continuing its economic and social development goals and missions. China focuses on epidemic prevention and control as the priority and resuming work and production as secondary. For the necessary conditions to restore normal life, the most important thing is to find a method to cure new coronary pneumonia. In practical action, it will work hard to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the economy. China resolutely upholds a responsible attitude towards global public health security, and also insists on contributing to the development of the world economy through its own development. It believes that once the epidemic is under control, the suppressed demand will push the economy into a state of strong growth characterized by rapid rebound or supplementary growth. The slowdown of China's economy will have the greatest impact on China's direct investment in ASEAN, because the total amount of direct investment often fluctuates greatly with the economic conditions of the country. I believe the epidemic will not crush the Chinese economy. International observers generally believe that with the resumption of work, the availability of raw materials, and the gradual realization of product exports, China's economic health will definitely return to normal. The economic and trade cooperation between ASEAN and China has developed vigorously in the past 30 years. Not only has China's role in trade and investment expanded, China's role as the world's largest outbound tourism market has also expanded, prompting ties between China and the geographically adjacent ASEAN Econominomies to get closer. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has weighed on the Chinese economy and led to a slowdown in growth. It will affect the economies of ASEAN countries with which China has close relations through three main channels: trade, investment and tourism. How should Thailand respond? The Thai economy will be greatly affected by COVID-19, because the Thai economy is heavily dependent on China. Especially for tourist attraction in addition to the impact of this disease, the appreciation of the Thai baht will worsen the tourism industry in Thailand. Therefore, the government should quickly find solutions for the tourism businesses , before other industries are also effected. In the era of economic globalization, the countries of the world are interdependent, which is both a community of a shared future and a community of shared interests. The international market is paying attention to China's resumption of production. China has put emphasis on deepening international cooperation, strengthening communication and coordination with economic and trade partners . China is giving priority to guarant leading companies , key links in global supply chains and valued delivery networks to restore production supply . And in turn maintaining global supply chain stability, and demonstrating responsibility for common global development . China's economy is strong, domestic demand is large, the industry is solid, and policy choices and options are plentiful. China is the world's second largest economy, the world's largest manufacturing country, and an important hub of the global supply chain. China is the world's largest trader of goods, the world's second largest inflow of foreign capital and foreign direct investment. China has the world's fastest growing consumer market. Finding opportunities in times of adversity , we can see better the potential and prospects of China's economy. Some international observers have noticed that the nationwide anti-epidemic drive of China has driven the "house economy" and "cloud life". New forms of businesses such as smart manufacturing, unmanned distribution, online consumption, medical health, and e-commerce have grown against the trend . Such kind of response not only meets the needs of people's livelihood, it also releases emerging consumption potential, and opens up new market for high-quality economic development. In order to fight the epidemic, China is increasing research and development of reagents, drugs, vaccines, and promoting the accelerated development of biological technology, biomedicine, medical equipment, 5G networks, and industrial Internet. It can be expected that after the epidemic, China's economic development will gain increased momentum. In addition, the market penetration of e-commerce is likely to accelerate, realizing the tasks of socio-economic development goals. The stable development of the Chinese economy will surely continue to inject confidence and add momentum to global growth.

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Tharakorn Wusatirakul: COVID-19 Outbreak Impact

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