On April 24^th, the presentation of IMF World Economic Outlook Report for the first Half of 2024 was held in Beijing. The event is co-hosted by the IMF China Office and the International Monetary Institute (IMI) of Renmin University of China and co-organized by the Forum for International Financial and Industrial Cooperation (IFIC).

Zhang Jianming, Executive Vice President of the Alumni Association of Renmin University of China, Steven Barnett, IMF Chief Representative in China, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi and Nicolas Fernandez-Arias, IMF Research Department economists, Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean of Capital Market Research Institute, RUC, Wang Fang, Deputy Dean of the School of Finance and Deputy Director of the IMI, RUC, Guo Biao, Assistant Dean of the National Academy of Financial Research, RUC, Liu Hongwei, Secretary-General of the International Finance and Industry Cooperation Forum (IFIC), and other experts and scholars from financial management departments, research institutes and financial institutions from many countries and regions attended the conference, delivered speeches and participated in the discussion, and dozens of media covered the event. The meeting was chaired by Zhang Zhixiang, former director general of the International Department of the People's Bank of China and former executive director of China to the IMF.

On behalf of the conference organizers, Zhang Jianming first expressed warm welcome and heartfelt thanks to the guests attending the lecture, pointing out that the Chinese economy and the world economy are entering a new period of development, with many unpredictable factors, the geopolitical situation is grim, and the downward pressure on the world economy is increasing. The World Economic Outlook Report, published regularly by the IMF, analyzes the world macroeconomic situation and forecasts the economic prospects, providing important intellectual support for the prosperity of the world economy and the high-quality development of the Chinese economy. I look forward to full exchanges and discussions among the distinguished guests at this information session, building more consensus on openness and contributing to the prosperity of the world economy.

On behalf of the hosts and organizers, Zhang Jianming first expressed warm welcome and heartfelt thanks to the guests attending the lecture, pointing out that the China’s economy and the world economy are entering a new period of development with many unpredictable factors, grim geopolitical situation, and increasing downward pressure. The World Economic Outlook Report released regularly by the IMF, analyzes the world macroeconomic situation and forecasts the economic prospects, providing crucial support for the prosperity of the world economy and the high-quality development of China’s economy. Mr. Zhang looks forward to full exchanges and discussions among the distinguished guests at this information session, building more consensus on openness, and contributing to the prosperity of the world economy.

On behalf of the conference organizers, Zhang Jianming first expressed warm welcome and heartfelt thanks to the guests attending the lecture, pointing out that the Chinese economy and the world economy are entering a new period of development, with many unpredictable factors, the geopolitical situation is grim, and the downward pressure on the world economy is increasing. The World Economic Outlook Report, published regularly by the IMF, analyzes the world macroeconomic situation and forecasts the economic prospects, providing important intellectual support for the prosperity of the world economy and the high-quality development of the Chinese economy. I look forward to full exchanges and discussions among the distinguished guests at this information session, building more consensus on openness and contributing to the prosperity of the world economy.

In his keynote address, Steven Barnett pointed out the priorities of the world economy in transition. He said that the global economy is in transition and the coronavirus pandemic has had a persistent scar effect on the global economy, and although it has experienced a post-pandemic rebound, the economic growth rate is still lower than before the epidemic. China’s rapid economic recovery has produced positive spillover effects on other countries and made important contributions to global economic growth. The international community should focus on three aspects in the transition: first, curb inflation and build a fiscal policy buffer to support it; Second, improve production efficiency; Third, strengthen global cooperation, attach importance to trade, promote investment, and develop green economy and e-commerce.

Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi analyzed the real estate market in his keynote speech. He said that monetary policy is transmitted to the real estate market through three main channels: first, the increase in policy interest rates directly increases household interest expenses and inhibits consumption; Second, it indirectly affects housing demand and household consumption by influencing housing price expectation and risk premium. Third, changes in policy interest rates directly affect mortgage interest rates, thereby affecting credit demand and supply. The policy response of housing markets in different countries varies, mainly due to the structural characteristics of the mortgage market. Therefore, the central bank needs to take the characteristics of the real estate market into more consideration when formulating policies, reasonably understand and predict the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the real estate market in different countries, pay close attention to changes in the mortgage market, and timely adjust policies to meet the new challenges that may be brought about by future market changes.

Nicolas Fernandez-Arias focused on emerging economies in his keynote address. He said that emerging market countries have grown very fast in the past two decades, accounting for one third of global GDP, and have been more deeply integrated into the global market through trade, industrial chain and so on. At the same time, however, growth expectations in some emerging market countries have declined, and this could have spillover effects on other economies that affect different sectors differently, leading to a large redistribution of economic activity and employment across sectors. Here are some policy recommendations: first, structural reforms, especially in labor markets and business regulation; second, implement targeted financial support to mitigate the adverse effects of spillovers on distribution; third, carry out effective multilateral cooperation and international policy coordination to minimize the risk of market segmentation.

In the keynote speech, Zhao Xijun analyzed the development of China’s economy and put forward policy recommendations. He pointed out that on the international front, global economic growth has shown resilience and high inflation has shown a easing trend. Domestically, the national economy continued to rebound in the first quarter, started steadily, made progress in stability, and got off to a good start. The operation of the foreign exchange market showed strong resilience, cross-border capital flows were generally balanced, market expectations remains rational, and transactions remained orderly. The growth rate of private and small and micro loans was significantly higher than the average growth rate of all loans. The scale of corporate credit bond issuance has increased, and instruments to support private enterprise bond financing have also been promoted. In terms of macroeconomic policy guidance, we will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. All regions and departments should adopt more policies that help stabilize expectations, growth, and employment, and prudently introduce contractionary and inhibitory measures. At the same time, we need to strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools to ensure consistency in policy orientation. The fiscal policy should be more proactive and efficient, make good use of fiscal policy space, and optimize the mix of policy tools. On the whole, the international economic situation has shown resilience, and domestic economic policies have been positive, which is conducive to promoting economic growth and stability.

The following guest discussion session was moderated by Guo Biao. Steven Barnett, Xijun Zhao, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Nicolas Fernandez-Arias, and Hongwei Liu participated in the discussion. Experts and scholars have discussed the challenges of economic recovery, rising geopolitical risks, inflation, the response to climate change, and the narrowing of income inequality.