Launch of ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2017
2017-05-24 IMI
Ms. Li Hongxia made the opening speech. She made a brief introduction to AMRO and pointed out that the AMRO report has a milestone significance, including three important parts: first, it is concerned about the regional economic outlook and challenges in the “ASEAN 10+3” region; second, the report specially analyzes the spillover effect in the United States, China and Japan in order to understand the significance of the three economies for regional growth and financial stability in ASEAN, China, Japan and Korea; third, the report analyzes the regional growth model in the past 20 years and points out the policy direction for the future of economic growth after the economic crisis. In recent years, AMRO's macroeconomic monitoring capabilities have been continuously enhanced and have contributed significantly to regional economic growth and financial stability. The report also helps to deepen the understanding of the ASEAN “10+3” region's economy and provide valuable suggestions for policymaking.
Dr. Khor Hoe Ee delivered a keynote speech entitled "ASEAN 10+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2017 ". He shared the macroeconomic outlook for ASEAN “10+3” and made a summary and estimation on the development of this region after the Asian Financial Crisis. Dr. Khor Hoe Ee pointed out that despite of external uncertainties, domestic demand and the recent rebound in exports will continue to promote regional economic growth. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of the ASEAN “10+3” region in 2017-2018 will decrease slightly, but it can still reach 5%. The region’s inflation is controllable, its foreign exchange reserves are still sufficient, regional integration is enhanced, and global trade and investments are recovering, so the overall outlook is positive. However, risks such as protectionism, tightening global liquidity, rising inflation and increased volatility of the financial market cannot be ignored. Space for the monetary policy and fiscal policy is more limited and the global policy environment is also more unstable. In weighing economic growth and financial stability, policy makers should put financial stability in the first place. He particularly stressed that after the global financial crisis, China has a stronger financial relationship with the region, which means that China's economic shock will bring greater uncertainty. Therefore, the development trend of China’s financial market deserves close attention. At present, China's capital outflow has slowed down, the exchange rate has stabilized, private investments have increased, so it is unlikely that a "hard landing" will occur. China will have a more positive spillover effect on the whole region, but should pay more attention to the issue of corporate debts. Dr. Khor Hoe Ee reviewed the policy adjustment and development of ASEAN, China, Japan and ROK after the Asian Financial Crisis. He thought that the Asian Financial Crisis has shaped the regional development base and path of Asia in over 20 years and had a profound impact on regional integration. Under such an influence, policymakers have also developed a risk management and solution framework. The Asian Financial Crisis has led countries to pay more attention to interconnection and infectivity of the crisis and it has highlighted the importance of flexible policy frameworks and comprehensive regional financial cooperation. Today, these lessons are still very valuable to policy makers.
After the keynote speech, Mr. Wei Benhua chaired the roundtable discussion attended by Dr. Khor Hoe Ee, Gao Haihong, Lu Feng, Tu Yonghong and other experts. The discussion focused on some factors’ impacts on economic growth, including the risks and vulnerabilities of ASEAN “10+3” countries, the spillover effect of RMB internationalization on ASEAN countries, the relationship between the Asian Financial Crisis and the establishment of AMRO, prospects and risks of China’s economy, funds and investments of the Belt and Road Initiative and their impacts on regional economy, some long-term basic factors for the globe (such as the disconnection of virtual economy and real economy, the polarization between the rich and the poor, the slowdown of total factor productivity, etc.).
In conclusion, Mr. Wei Benhua summed up the conference. He pointed out AMRO's "ASEAN 10+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2017" is well written and highly relevant. The regional economic growth of ASEAN “10+3”is sound. We are confident that ASEAN “10+3” will maintain the world's most robust growth trend. At the same time, we must not ignore the risks and vulnerabilities existing in the development prospects. The policy recommendations presented in the report deserve the serious consideration and studies of policy makers.
