Macro-Finance Salon (No.99): Chinese Economy in the Context of the Evolving US-China Relation

2018-09-30 IMI

On Sep. 30th, Macro-Finance Salon (No.99) jointly organized by IMI and the School of Finance of Renmin University of China was successfully held in conference room 701 in Mingde Main Building. The Founder and Chairman of the China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (“CCXI”), Mao Zhenhua, delivered a keynote speech entitled “Chinese Economy in the Context of the Evolving US-China Relation”. The meeting was chaired by DAI Wensheng, professor of the School of Finance of Renmin University of China and the IMI senior research fellow. In his speech “Chinese Economy in the Context of the Evolving US-China Relation”, Prof.Mao first discusses whether US-China relations will enter “a new cold war”. He thinks that China is never an ally of the US and now both countries have entered a “strongman cycle” and that China’s determination to fight corruption is showcasing China’s strength. He then analyzes the trade conflicts between US and China. He believes that an important issue is whether China-US disputes will extend beyond a trade war. He also notes the trade war is not the reason behind China’s economic slowdown because China’s economy is still in a period of adjustment. The trade conflicts US started reveals its intent to contain China in various areas including market, technology, investment, geo-politics and military. He lists three possible scenario of how US-China rivalry plays out. The best scenario is it does not extend beyond a trade war. The second scenario is that China and US returned to an era of regional economic integration. The third, a new cold war. He warns us to prepare for a possible cold war. In the discussion, the guests interacted and exchanged ideas with each other. They discussed the following hot topics: the cold war mentality, the likelihood of a hot war, China’s economic opening-up, US-China rivalry and the adaptivity of domestic enterprises. Macro-Finance Salon, a high-level academic salon jointly organized by IMI and the School of Finance of Renmin University of China, has four series, namely Policy Experts, Academic Experts, Top Talents and Young Scholars. Based on China’s practice and following the latest international trends, the Salon is a high-level, specialized and open academic exchange platform that facilitates policy and strategy studies, the “Micro-Finance” discipline building in the new era and the implementation of macro-financial theory. The concept “Macro-Finance” is derived from Prof. Huang Da’s notion of combining the macro and micro financial theories and it is in line with the approach of treating finance and the real economy as a whole. Chen Yulu, the deputy governor of PBoC, explained the concept and its methodology in his book A General Theory of Macrofinance and created the theoretical framework and empirical basis for the “Micro-Finance” system whose development is conducive to China’s long-term economic growth and the national competitiveness.

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Macro-Finance Salon (No.99): Chinese Economy in the Context of the Evolving US-China Relation

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