Macro-finance Salon (No. 115): China’s Economic Outlook: 2019 and Beyond

On the afternoon of March 21st, Macro-finance Salon (No.115) was held in Renmin University. Mr. Zhu Haibin, Managing Director and China’s Chief Economist of J.P. Morgan delivered a speech under the theme of China’s Economic Outlook: 2019 and Beyond. The meeting was attended by Mr. Cao Lu, vice president of J.P. Morgan (China), Mr. Wei Benhua, former deputy administrator-in-bureau of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Professor Wang Changyun, dean of Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, IMI researchers Liu Hongwei and Tian Xinming etc. Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, former director general of the International Department of the People’s Bank of China hosted the meeting.

Zhang Zhixiang

In his speech, Mr. Zhu Haibin shared his opinions of China’s economic trend in the short term, challenges in the mid-long term and potential growth drivers in the future. Firstly, on reviewing China’s economic performance in 2018, he came up with two points: policy reversal might exert an obvious influence on the short cycle of the economy; trade will greatly influence China’s and America’s economy within one year or beyond. He briefed the audience on J.P. Morgan’s overall predication that China’s economic growth rate in 2019 will be around 6.2% and the countercyclical policy’s influence on China’s economy from the perspectives of fiscal, monetary and real estate policies and financial supervision. In addition, Mr. Zhu elaborated on two problems in China’s economic development. Firstly, the downward trend of PPI may lead to continuous sluggishness in industrial businesses, increasing downward pressure on investment in manufacturing industry. Secondly, the nominal GDP growth rate may be much lower than 9.5% as predicted by the Chinese government, which may negatively impact China’s long-term economic performance. He concluded his speech by saying that the downward pressure of China’s economy will continue, and it will be satisfactory if China’s economy can maintain a 5% growth rate in ten years, which requires active structural reforms, including reforms in production factors market and market entity as well as systemic risk prevention.

Zhu Haibin

After the speech, participants had a further discussion on China-US trade friction, Belt and Road Initiative, RMB exchange rate, debt risks, leverage rate and other issues.

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