On April 11, the Macro-Finance Salon (No. 180) was held online. This event was co-hosted by the IMI, and the Department of Monetary Finance, School of Finance, RUC. The online seminar was the 23rd session of the series entitled “Finance Propels the Opening of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan”. During the seminar, Professor Dai Wensheng from the School of Finance, RUC delivered a keynote titled “Analysis of the Chinese Economy with the GDP Growth Target of 5.5%”. Participating in the Salon were Chen Weidong, Director of Research Institute of Bank of China; Qian Zongxin, Associate Dean of the School of Finance, RUC; Wu Ge, Chief Economist and Assistant President of Huarong Securities; and Xia Le, Chief Economist for Asia, BBVA. The Salon was moderated by Qu Qiang, Assistant Director of IMI.

In his keynote speech, Professor Dai pointed out that in 2021, the Chinese government coordinated COVID-19 response with growth, realizing stable social and economic development, and achieving the targets set earlier in the year. In particular, foreign trade and final consumption contributed more to economic growth than they did the year before, while the contribution of the service industry fluctuated due to recurring waves of COVID-19 infections. Currently, the international environment is extremely complex with an economic recession or even crisis looming over the horizon. The worrying COVID-19 situation abroad may lead to labor shortage, foreboding weak foreign trade in China. Domestically, relapses of COVID-19 may lead to economic slowdown due to disturbances in logistics and industry chains. Private investors are also low in market confidence. Nevertheless, Dai believed that the GDP growth target of 5.5% can be achieved as long as the whole country is united and a slew of measures are implemented to ensure fiscal stability and financial development. Globally, the Chinese government should make steady progress in the Belt and Road Initiative and sustain economic ties with Europe and the US to facilitate the international circulation in the “dual circulation” strategy. Domestically, the government should first hold firm to the dynamic zero-COVID policy by establishing a long-term and regular prevention and control mechanism with a special focus on providing mental support to the public. The second aspect is ensuring security in operations of market entities, employment, and basic living needs. Dai offered three suggestions in this regard: firstly, providing more relief and support to MSMEs and disadvantaged groups; secondly, expanding infrastructure projects to ensure employment; and thirdly, enlarging the scale of workers going back to colleges for further education. At the same time, social stability and economic development should be considered.