On April 20, Macro-Finance Salon (No.206), co-organized by Minmetals Institute of Industrial Finance and the International Monetary Institute (IMI) of Renmin University of China (RUC), was held in Beijing. Themed at “China's macroeconomic and financial outlook in the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan”, the salon was joined by keynote speaker Xiong Yuan, Guosheng Securities Chief Economist and Macro Chief Analyst. Fellow participants of the salon include Guan Qingyou, Director and Chief Economist of Reality Institute of Advanced Finance, Wang Guogang, professor of the School of Finance of RUC and member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Xia Le, Chief Economist in Asian from the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), and Zhu Tong, Director of Energy Economics Research Office of Institute of Industrial Economics of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The event was moderated by Qu Shuangshi, Executive Director of Minmetals Institute of Industrial Finance.

Xiong Yuan pointed out in the keynote report that the economy stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter, with GDP growth of 4.5% exceeding market expectations, mainly due to unexpected export growth in March and recovery in the real estate and service sectors. On this basis, the 5% GDP growth goal is likely to be achieved. In terms of structure, there are obvious divergences and potential worries: first, the problem of insufficient demand and confidence still exists, which is manifested by the significantly low CPI in the context of high increase of currency and social finance and economic recovery. Meanwhile, the confidence of private enterprises, the Internet and other economic agents has not been significantly restored and therefore needs further observation; Second, China's debt model has been in a bottleneck, and all parties are plagued by heavy debt pressure, especially plagued by the problem of local hidden debt; third, the structural employment of college students and young people is relatively severe. Based on these, the policy should be focused on promoting stable growth, confidence and expectations. On the one hand, development is the key. We need to find ways to attain a stable growth and a high-quality development while let the "stabilizer", namely, real estate and traditional infrastructure play their roles in the short term. Positive and expansive monetary and fiscal policies should be adopted, and the central government should make use of the leverage to resolve the debt dilemma; on the other hand, the government should timely introduce pragmatic and effective policies to boost confidence and improve expectations. "Visible and touchable" methods and policies should be resorted to help private enterprises. In addition, we should pay close attention to the changes in China's financial regulatory policies, which are likely to be tightened, and also keep an eye on changes overseas, including the evolution of the current overseas banking crisis and the change of Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Translated by Zheng Xiaosu