Macro-Finance Salon (No. 33) and Press Conference of IMI-KIEP Research Report
2016-06-05 IMI
Written by Gang Jianhua, Qian Zongxin, Zhang Chao and Zhang Jiarui, the report was themed The Effect of Changes in the U.S. Monetary Policy on China’s Capital Market Stability and Trade between China and Korea.
Mr. Zhang Zhixiang first introduced the origin and meaning of the report. He pointed out, the resources of this report were offered by both Chinese and Korean side and this report was only a start of researches on American currency policy of which we should deepen our understanding.
Mr. Zhang Chao pointed out the report figured out the feature of trade between China and Korea: the high-level integration and combination and analyzed the international capital flows of China and Korea. The report chose the public data and data offered by Korea to establish the VAR model and conclude that stock market’s risk premium directly affects the capital flow, capital control has no impact on capital flow and there is a huge difference between two countries’ market structure and the condition of capital flow. Finally, based on traditional theory, the report researched on the impact of US dollar’s appreciation and domestic income of China and Korea, came to a conclusion that US dollar’s appreciation finitely affects trade between China and Korea with an analysis on the limited impact of American currency policy on the capital market of China. The report viewed that the currency policy of FED has confined influence on international capital flow and capital market of China and Korea while proposed policy suggestion concerning bilateral trade between China and Korea and the establishment of capital market.
Mr. Yang Pingxie introduced the development of trade between China and Korea during the review segment. He believed trade between China and Korea is mainly decided by manufacturing factor, export structure of Korea enterprises and prices of talents. In recent years: China’s trade deficit with Korea narrowed; corporation between China and Korea on finance and currency gradually developed; reciprocal investment of China and Korea in capital market was gradually growing; trades between China and Korea that were settled by RMB weighted more and more.
Prof. Tu Yonghong put forward the trade structure between China and Korea is worth researching and affirmed the comprehensiveness of the research report. She figured out, generally, the open of capital market will not bring great influence to real economy. But since 2010, the increasing speed of volume of trade between China and Korea descended consecutively therefore new growth should be found in the future.
Mr. Wei Benhua considered that the research method deserves an affirmation and should be generalized. Under circumstances that bilateral communication of economy, trade and talents between China and Korea has become wider. He emphasized, the fluctuation in price of on-shore RMB will lead to a change in price of off-shore RMB, instead of vice versa – the open progress of Korea capital set a great example for China. He held the belief that economic corporation between China and Korea still has the potential to be further improved and hoped both can deepen the corporation in economy, trade and talents in the future.
Mr. Guo Jianwei hoped we can continue to study in depth on the foundation of the report, make further efforts discovering the innovations and highlights hiding behind the trade structure index and China can enhance the corporation with Korea in finance and technology, mutually promoting the development of trade between both countries.
