Macro-Finance Salon (No. 186): Cyclical Dynamics and Outlook on Economic and Financial Policies in China and the US

2022-08-21 IMI

The Macro-Finance Salon (No. 186) on the “Cyclical Dynamics and Outlook on Economic and Financial Policies in China and the US” was held online through live broadcast on June 10, 2022. The International Monetary Institute (IMI), Renmin University of China and School of Finance, Renmin University of China hosted the event.


Mr. Wang Bin, IMI Researcher and Chief Macroeconomy Analyst of the Department of Investment Banking, ICBC, was invited as the keynote speaker at the salon. Other guests included Mr. Zhu Mengnan, Director of Financial Research Center and the College of Continuing Education at Xiamen University, Mr. Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, Mr. Luo Zhenxing, Director of Finance office at the Institute of American Studies, CASS, and Mr. Zhang Chengsi, Associate Dean, School of Finance, RUC. Mr. Zhao Ran, Associate Professor of the School of Finance, Capital University of Economics and Business hosted the event.


Mr. Wang Bin, speaking at the keynote speech, stated that Chinese economy had slowed down since the latter half of last year and he cited the pandemic as further exacerbating this trend this year. To achieve economic recovery, China, unlike America, which chose quantitative easing (QE) to reboost its economy instead of disease control, must prioritize prevention and control of the Covid-19 over macro-economic policies. This year would see many challenges in securing Chinese economic growth. Therefore, Chinese macro-economic policies, likely to be released in the first half of 2022, would be targeted on stable economic growth. Chinese macro-economic policies and actions were quite predictable. In America, the on-going pandemic and money expansion led to high inflation. It was an expediency for American to adopt QE to increase money supply, which later caused higher inflation. After the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the interest rate, American economy became even more fragile. It was possible that Fed would change its policy, as it was troubled by issues such as inflation, economic growth, debt and stock market.


During discussion, the guests exchanged their views on reasons for the inflation in the U.S. in different phases, as well as the cyclical dynamics of and outlook for Chinese and American monetary policies.