On July 7, 2022, the Macro-Finance Salon (No. 188) was held online. This event was co-hosted by the International Monetary Institute (IMI) and the Department of Monetary Finance, School of Finance, Renmin University of China (RUC), and organized by the Macroeconomic Research Office of IMI. During the seminar, Zhang Bin, Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS, delivered a keynote speech titled “New Citizens and New Models: Housing Markets for the future”. Professor Wang Guogang, School of Finance, RUC; Member of Academic Committee, CASS; Li Xunlei, Chief Economist, Zhongtai Securities; Xia Lei, Chief Economist, Sealand Securities and Chen Xiaoliang, Associate Editor&Reviewer, Institute of Economics, CASS gave speeches respectively. The salon was moderated by Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean, Academy of China Capital Market, RUC.

In his keynote speech, Zhang Bin covered four aspects. The first part is about high housing prices. High housing market prices are driven by a series of factors including the cost of industrial financing and the imbalance between supply and demand. Meanwhile, housing prices are also supported by the ability of residents’ income to cover mortgage interest. When housing supplies are elastic, high housing prices will contribute to development in all sectors. The biggest impact of current high housing prices is that they raise living costs of people working in big cities. The second problem is high indebtedness. A large number of precipitated assets make the phenomenon of high turnover within the real estate market and the declining asset turnover ratio a paradox. High indebtedness will also affect macroeconomic stability through the credit channel. The third aspect is about high financialization. Residents now use real estate as their main investment vehicle. The impact of real estate lending on other sectors is related to aggregate demand and inflation. In the fourth part, the future of real estate markets and the main imbalance facing housing markets are analyzed. Finally, policy recommendations are made on construction programs of metropolitan areas for new citizens and debt restructuring programs.