Macro-Finance Salon (No. 39): Supply-Side Reform, Idle Liquidity and Asset Allocation

On November 5, Macro-Finance Salon No. 39 was held. Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities and dean of Minsheng Securities Academy, gave a keynote speech on supply-side reform, idle liquidity and assets allocation. Zhao Xijun, associate dean of School of Finance, and IMI deputy director Tu Yonghong joined discussion. This salon was hosted by Qu Qiang, assistant director of IMI. Guan Qingyou analyzed current macro economy, introduced supply-side reform and shared his view on fiscal policy, real estate market and asset management. He pointed out the growth of GDP stood for 3 quarters because of the management of demand-side and the positive influence of fiscal policies. The government still has room to add leverage. The tightened control of real estate restrained the short-term real estate price and its impact on macro economy will be embodied in the second quarter of 2017. There are some risks involved in asset management. The severe “upside down” of the liability-side cost and returns on asset may trigger commercial banks to redeem the entrusted investment and largely impact the market. The stricter supervision would also lead to a violent fluctuation in the market. In the low interest rate environment, an increase in allocation of equity assets will work itself out and oversea acquisitions will be an optimal choice that worth consideration for the insurance and finance companies in the short term. Prof. Zhao Xijun pointed out that we should look for the opportunity with current macro economic situation and pay more attention to the risks. Prof. Tu Yonghong considered, with the current global situation, we should be more aware of the importance of foreign market enlarge the market to the Belt and Road countries to lower the risks. In the Q&A session, the audiences raised questions regarding the monetization of gold, bulk commodity allocation and the expectation of CPI, etc.

DOWNLOAD