On September 22, the Macro-Finance Salon(No.157): Seminar on World and China’s Economy was held in the Culture Square. Prof. Tu Yonghong, Deputy Director of IMI, addressed opening remarks. Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in China, and Mr. Alfred Schipke, Assistant Director, Asia & Pacific Department of IMF, and Former Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China, delivered keynote speeches. Later on, Mr. Wei Benhua, Former Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and Former IMF Executive Director for China, and Prof. Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean of Academy of China Capital Market of RUC, respectively commented on the two speeches and voiced their opinions. During the seminar, Prof. Tu awarded a letter of appointment for member of IMI International Committee to Mr. Steven Barnett. The meeting was chaired by Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, Former Director General of International Department of People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and Former IMF Executive Director for China.

During her speech, Prof. Tu argued that faced with a completely new international situation, China should focus on facilitating national economic circulation to establish a new development pattern. As domestic demand is stimulated to boost domestic circulation, inner circulation shall be leveraged to guide international circulation and international circulation shall be harnessed to drive domestic circulation, thereby forming an open dual-circulation development pattern where the domestic and international markets complement each other. This pattern will promote economic growth. China should also actively participate in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, enhance international policy coordination and join hands with other countries to promote steady global economic recovery.                 Mr. Barnett proposed five reflections on the global economy in his keynote speech. The first point is about the trends in China’s economy. He said that China is the engine for global growth and expected a broad-based rebound in activity next year. Nonetheless, the global economy in 2021 will still be substantially below the pre-crisis trend and the global output decline mainly results from uncertainty about the economic outlook brought about by the uncertainties of policies. The second point revolves around policy response. He emphasized the importance of public policy and affirmed the role played by fiscal and monetary policies of different countries in crises. The third point pivots on post-pandemic recovery. He contended that to meet the coming challenges, economic reforms are required to raise local productivity, promote reallocation of resources and foster inclusive growth. The fourth point touches on multilateralism. He was of the view that the global scale of the crisis requires global solutions and that countries need to cooperate on multiple fronts, including health care, economy and trade, and climate change. Last but not least, he stated that we can use the crisis as an opportunity to build a better future for all people and that we must seize those opportunities.

        After Mr. Barnett’s speech, Mr. Wei Benhua made three comments. In terms of China’s economy, Mr. Wei remarked that China has taken powerful measures during the pandemic to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus and has reopened its economy, therefore China’s economy in general can achieve positive growth in 2020. With regard to policy response, he showed his concern for how partial countries should quit taking unlimited quantitative easing measures after their economy returns to normal and how this move will impact on the market. He also expressed approval for the monetary policies taken by the PBoC during the pandemic. When it comes to multilateral cooperation, he highlighted the importance of multilateral cooperation and reaffirmed China’s willingness to conduct multilateral cooperation.        In his keynote speech, Mr. Alfred Schipke expressed his opinions on China as a country in transition. He noted that China needs to reform its systems and institutions accordingly to integrate itself into the world. Regarding micro-finance, China needs to create a social safety net to enable the market to play a bigger role. In regard to finance, China needs to capitalize on fiscal policies to manage its economic cycle. In respect of the real economy, the PBoC needs to convey information about the framework for exchange rate policy clearly to reduce disruption made by exchange rate to the market. Moreover, he used an example to illustrate the importance of reforming mechanisms. Last but not least, he shed light on the cooperation mechanism between IMF and China and offered some suggestions to Chinese students.        After Mr. Schipke concluded his speech, Prof. Zhao Xijun made some comments. In terms of outbound investment, Prof. Zhao pointed out that China’s lending toother countries is gradually climbing and its outbound investment is progressively expanding. With regard to mechanism building, he opined that fundamental changes have been witnessed in China’s mechanism forallocating resources. Meanwhile, institutional development has also been accentuated in the revision and improvement of a portion of laws and plans. Prof. Zhao also agreed with Mr. Schipke on institutional development in the bond market and China’s lending to other countries.        Lastly, in the Q&A session, Mr. Barnett aired his opinions about future China-US cooperation and a future financial safety net. Mr. Schipke also commented on the future financial safety net, and clarified rules and standards that the IMF will impose on China.