Roundtable on Money and Finance·Winter 2016 and the Plenary Meeting of IMI
2017-01-15 IMI
On behalf of the School of Finance, Guo Qingwang, IMI academic committee member and the Dean of the School of Finance of RUC delivered the opening remark. He spoke highly of achievements of IMI in 2016, including Roundtable on Money and Finance, Macro-Finance Salon, McKinnon Lectures, Tao Xiang International Finance Forums, RMB Internationalization Report, etc. He also thanked advisory board members and academic committee members for their wholehearted support. 
Ma Delun, chairman of Banking Accounting Society of China and Former Deputy Governor of PBoC, made a keynote speech. He said that the year 2016 was a brand new year for China’s financial sector, which has entered a market-oriented, international and high-tech era. In the perspective of marketization, open market players are becoming increasingly active. The price is increasingly market-oriented and capital flow is more flexible. At the same time, people pay more attention to the changes that science and technology bring to the financial sector. In the perspective of international environment, protectionism, populism, the uncertainty, pace and intensity of dollar interest-rate hikes have a direct impact on RMB exchange rate. China's monetary policy is currently facing a variety of unprecedented conflicts and challenges. We need to discover the reasons behind and come up with solutions.
In Keynote Speech I "review and outlook of macro economy and finance", Guan Qingyou, IMI academic committee member, vice president of Minsheng Securities. Based on his observations of economic outlook, Mr. Guan put forward the following six points: At present, China's economy continues to slow down and policies tend to be conservative; although policies to “cut excessive industrial capacity, destock, deleverage, lower corporate costs and improve weak links” deviate slightly from the original intentions, considerable progresses have been made in the past year; self-regulating ability of enterprises to cope with economic downturn should not be overlooked; disordered asset flows and asset shortage will continue; projections for RMB depreciation still exist, but there is little chance for a substantial depreciation; China's current fiscal pressure is not enough to trigger major political changes.
Dr. Xiang offered in-depth analysis on his observations and judgments of current global economy and the Chinese economy. In his view, the downturn of real economy and the exposure of overall economic risks add many unfavorable factors to RMB internationalization. We should reflect on the economic problems faced by major economies and the whole world and root causes; we should think about how to tackle income gap, vicious expansion of virtual economy and other issues, so that allocation of social resources can truly enhance China’s competitiveness in real economy and science and technology.
In the keynote speech II "Outlook of RMB Exchange Rate", three IMI academic committee members delivered speeches, namely Chen Weidong, director of International Finance Institute of the Bank of China, Ding Jianping, director of Research Center for Modern Finance of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Ding Zhijie, assistant president of University of International Business and Economics. Mr. Chen analyzed the trend of RMB exchange rate, reasons behind RMB devaluation, global capital flow, US economic outlook and the dollar cycle. He also put forward suggestions for RMB internationalization. He believes that we should strengthen expectation guidance and management of RMB exchange rate market so as to effectively cope with cyclical fluctuations of RMB exchange rate, reduce the impact of RMB devaluation on real economy. Meanwhile, we should meet the needs of real economy and remain prudent about the pace of reform and development.
In his speech, “China-US exchange rate game and RMB exchange rate in 2017”, Mr. Ding Jianping pointed out that China-US competition in the future will be determined by capital and enterprise competitiveness. China should seek a new path: use fiscal policies to conduct structural adjustment; implement accurate financial supervision; stabilize RMB exchange rate through self-regulatory mechanisms in foreign exchange market and refined big data.
Prof. Ding Zhijie mentioned in his speech that China should further cut reserves. He stressed that foreign exchange reserves are a part of the central bank’s foreign assets and the impact of their changes depend on the current situation. The status of foreign exchange reserves should be analyzed in the balance sheet and the central bank balance sheet. He believed that if the central bank fails to cut foreign reserves, it’s difficult to stabilize exchange rate and asset prices. In terms of capital flows, we need to strengthen inflow management.
Ben Shenglin, executive director of IMI, dean of the Academy of Internet Finance of Zhejiang University, made a year-end summary report. He summarized IMI achievement in 9 aspects: expert team, research team, the establishment of expert workshop, various kinds of academic activities, increasingly rich research results, dynamic international exchanges, growing media influence, newly launched GINTONG Global Talent Program and IMI’s inclusion in the top list of "2016 Big Data Report of Chinese Think Tanks". He also put forward IMI outlook in 2017. IMI will translate and publish of "IMF History Series", establish five research teams, actively build expert workshops, strengthen the management of researchers, optimize topic selection process, increase originality, expand international exchanges and cooperation, form a multi-level academic products series with focuses, and constantly enrich academic activities, figure out new ways to increase media influence, comprehensively promote the GINTONG Global Talent Program, initiate research on think tank rating indicators, actively promote the edit and submission of IMI Report, fully expand sources of funds to strengthen the board of directors.
The annual meeting also witnessed the first admission-awarding ceremony of the GINTONG Global Talent Program. The program aims to provide more practical help and guidance for students who are on campus or just graduate, so that they can better integrate into the economic world. Hu Xin, leader of the first undergraduate class of Program and a student from the School of Finance of Renmin University delivered a speech on behalf of all the students and expressed heartfelt thanks to program leaders and professors.
After the keynote speeches, the guests exchanged ideas and conducted in-depth discussion on RMB internationalization, China-US relations, the future development of China's financial system, internal risk management of financial institutions, governance, regulatory capacity, cross-border capital flows and other issues. Wang Yongli, senior vice president of Letv and former vice president of the Bank of China, talked about currency issues and expressed his view on the nature of currency, RMB internationalization and digital currency. Zhao Haiying, the CRO of China Investment Co., Ltd. analyzed opportunities and challenges facing China's financial reform from three perspectives: the world, US and China-US relations. Ji Zhihong, director-general, Financial Market Department of PBoC, analyzed changes and causes of credit risk premium during the downturn of China’s economy in the perspective of monetary policy, economic regime and income distribution. Li Wenhong, director of the Department of Innovation and Regulation of CBRC, pointed out that financial stability is an important factor that influences the confidence of overseas market in the Chinese market.
Other attendees include: Ji Hongbo, Party Secretary of the School of Finance, Renmin University of China; Zhu Qing, head of the Academic Committee; Feng Bo, former general manager of Dalian Commodity Exchange; Hu Xuehao, deputy director-general of the Ministry of Finance; Liu Qingsong, Former Division Chief of Henan Province CBRC; Qu Qiang, director of the China Financial and Policy Research Center; Shi Bin, vice chairman of Tong Chuang Jiu Ding Investment Holdings Co., Ltd; Sun lujun, director of CNIC Corporation Limited.; Wei benhua, former deputy administrator-in-bureau of SAFE; Zhang Xiaopu, deputy director-general of Macroeconomy Bureau, Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, General Office of the CPC Central Committee; Zhao Xijun, associate dean of the School of Finance of Renmin University; Zhou Daoxu, chairman of board, Huarong International Trust Co., Ltd.; Zhou Guangwen, chairman of Ginkgo Capital Management Co., Ltd and Beijing GinTong Network Investment Co., Ltd; Li Zheping, vice chairman of the IMI Council, executive director and editor-in-chief of Modern Bankers Magazine; Tu Yonghong and Song Ke, deputy directors of IMI; Qu Qiang and Qu Shuangshi, assistant directors of IMI; and other IMI researchers.
