The 1st Quarter Summit of China New Supply Economics 50 Forum and Roundtable on Money and Finance Spring 2018
2018-04-01 IMI
President Liu Wei pointed out in his opening remarks that 2018 was the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the CPC. It is the key year for the 40th anniversary of reform and opening-up, the successful completion of a well-off society, and the implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan. In the past five years, China's economy has leapt to a new level; new changes have taken place in the economic structure, new economic momentum has been achieved, and economic opening up has ushered in a new phase. A series of remarkable achievements have been made in supply-side reform, innovation and development, macro-control, and opening to the outside world. At the same time, we must also see that China's current economic growth is still insufficient in its endogenous power, its innovation capacity is not strong enough, and its development quality and benefits are not high enough. In particular, there are still many contradictions and problems in the financial sector, facing many risks. As a result of the challenges, it is necessary to put forward higher requirements for the reform and development of the financial industry. Facing a new era and standing at a new starting point, the financial industry must take new actions, seize new contradictions, boost new strategies, and achieve new goals.
In his speech, Chairman Hong Qi pointed out that the theory of modern economics in China adopts the phenomenon of introducing and learning from the West. In the construction and development of economic ideas, the economic circle also has its own “Chinese dream”, and this “Chinese dream” is being constantly realized. In 2012, before the CPC’s 18th National Congress, the “China New Supply Economics Research Group” was established. On December 8, 2013, the founding ceremony of Academy of Huaxia New Supply Economics and China New Supply Economics 50 Forum was held in Beijing. The purpose of setting up the 50 Forum is to seek a deep reflection on the mainstream economic theory framework of Europe and America in recent decades, and to practice the idea of integrating truth and pragmatism into ancient and modern, openness and inclusiveness through China and the West, and strive to create the concept of a first-class think tank that is compatible with the future economic outlook of China, actively discussing the construction of China's new supply economics theory.
Afterwards, guests including Wang Zhongmin, Liu Shijin, Jia Kang, Wu Xiaoqiu, and Wang Guangyu successively delivered keynote speeches. IMI Executive Director Ben Shenglin chaired this session.
In his speech, Wang Zhongmin put forward three keywords: "new supply, new posture, and new scenarios." He talked about the new situation in which the unicorn enterprise can directly take the IPO green channel, and elaborated on the new supply content in the four levels of personal, company, regional, and macro goals. He said that the reason why the Chinese market is generating supply-side reform today is based on the comparative advantage of the scenario. China has a large population and large demand. When the rapidly growing demand covers a large number of people, it will create new demands and impulses for reform. He believed that what China's supply-side reform needs to do is to provide the largest scenario of supply in the financial market logic at all financial exposures, so that China can become a new supply representative in the global market.
Liu Shijin believed that China’s economy is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-speed but high-quality growth. From the perspective of the supply side, past capacity-reduction has achieved greater results. Starting from the terminal demand structure, he analyzed China's next growth potential and the direction of structural adjustment. He pointed out that we must focus on quality and efficiency, maintain appropriate growth rates and stable and sustainable growth in terminal demand, and we must promote the upgrading of the consumption structure. The basic needs should shift from focusing on quantity to quality, and increasing the proportion of enjoyable and development consumption.
Jia Kang discussed the "Sino-US trade war" and introduced the main points of China's modern strategic thinking on overall Sino-U.S. relations. He believed that it is necessary to fully understand the "Sino-US trade war" and there is no reason for the trade war between China and the United States under the premise of "one high and one low." This includes China's access to WTO short-term buffer claims. However, as China has developed so far, it is unavoidable to deal with the accompanying trade frictions in the semi-passive situation of the "Catch-up Strategy." To grasp the overall picture of the issue of Sino-U.S. relations, the key is to prevent the worst-case “Cold War” in the general direction of China’s continued openness, and strive for the best possible situation—to compromise and “win-win” after weighing. The orientation of the community of human destiny and China's "peaceful rise" have realistic basis for innovation in the supply-side of the new era. A high-level strategy must abandon the old thinking of losing and winning, avoid "ultimate confrontation" and strive for inclusive development.
Wu Xiaoqiu believed that the current reform and development of China's financial industry must first clarify four major issues. The first issue is the development trend of China's financial industry. The changes in China's financial structure, financial functions, and financial business are the three most important trends. Second, China's financial risks have changed in the past mainly because of the risks of financial institutions. Now, institutional risks and market risks coexist. It is necessary to prevent the transformation of individual financial risks into systemic risks and the evolution of systemic risks into comprehensive financial risks. The third is the function of financial regulation. The most important function of financial regulation is to design a set of convergence mechanism and decline mechanism. These mechanisms can control the spread of financial risk. The fourth is the strategic goal of China's financial development. China will become the RMB-denominated wealth management center in the future, and the Chinese capital market will become an international financial center.
Wang Guangyu shared his opinions on deepening investment and reforming the capital market to better serve the new real economy. He put forward four points: First, in the process of releasing the development kinetic energy of the new economy, the investment and financial sectors should play their role more actively. The new entity economy must be able to meet the real needs of the common people, accommodate the employment of modern talents, combine new technologies, and be ecologically sustainable. Second, we must promote the construction of a multi-level capital market. Third, the way in which innovative companies are listed must draw on the experience of the entire world. Fourth, direct financing should be further promoted.
The afternoon session had two sub-themes. Theme I “Analysis and Outlook of Macroeconomy” was presided over by He Gang, Executive Editor-in-chief of Finance magazine. Feng Qiaobin, professor of economics at the National School of Administration, delivered a speech on “relying on party reform and reforming the government’s income system”. She believed that it could be adapted to the society by setting the social burden system and reorganizing the government’s income structure. The total burden is still too heavy to solve. Zhang Monan, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, analyzed the background of the "Sino-US trade war" and proposed strategies for maintaining the strength of the renminbi appreciation by facing the challenges of the total demand shrinkage that China may face. Ren Zeping, president and chief economist of the Evergrande Economy Academy, suggested that China's economy will be bottomed again in 2018. The Chinese economy will break through the L-shaped trend by 2019-2020 and continue to push the supply side reform. Reforms need to prevent oversight of good corporate finance while strengthening supervision. Wang Zhenyu, Dean of the Local Finance Institute of Liaoning University, analyzed the problems and contradictions in deepening reforms of the fiscal and taxation system from the perspective of the local level, and put forward a tax-return system for the tax reform.
Theme II "Financial Regulation Reform and Macro-control" was presided over by Huang Jianhui, Dean of Minsheng Bank Research Institute and Deputy Secretary-General of China's New Supply Economics 50 Forum. Wei Jianing, researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believed that the focus on financial reform should avoid subversive errors, set up a prudent supervision mechanism, clarify the accountability system, and establish three defense lines to strengthen the deposit insurance system. Wang Yongli, former vice president of the Bank of China, pointed out that China should seize the opportunity of the new era of the Internet, promote the tradable resources, and accelerate integration of international financial resources. Jin Hainian, chief research officer of Noah Holdings Co., Ltd. and deputy secretary general of the China New Supply Economics 50 Forum, discussed the key points of China’s financial system reform and proposed that it is necessary to establish a smooth and unified primary and secondary market and a multi-level financing system, to establish an independent exchange rate pricing mechanism and a large foreign exchange reserve system for a basket of commodities.
In addition, Wei Benhua, former deputy administrator-in-bureau of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Fan Xiwen, chief risk officer of the China-Latin America Cooperation Fund, Guo Jianwei, president of the Urumqi Central Branch of PBoC, Feng Bo, former general manager of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, Guan Wei, executive director of the Credit Management Research Center of RUC, Liu Qingsong, Research Fellow of CSRC Research Center, Liu Jianjun, Deputy Director of Private Equity Regulation Department of CSRC, Huang Qing, Board Secretary of China Shenhua Company, Qiao Weibing, Editor-in-chief of CITIC Publishing Group, Huang Zhen, Director of Institute of Financial Law of Central University of Finance and Economics, Huang Gefei, Vice President of China Galaxy Investment Management Co., Ltd, Ma Li, Partner of Deloitte China, Wu Qing, Chief Economist, China Eastern Asset Management Co., Ltd, Dong Shaopeng, Deputy Executive Editor of Securities Daily, Xiang Zhengrong, assistant president of Union Mobile Financial Technology Co., Ltd., Ltd, and IMI researchers Zhang Wenchun, Dai Wensheng, Hu Tianlong, Zhen Xinwei, Xiu Jing, Qu Qiang, Qu Shuangshi, Yin Ruizhe, Sun Chao, Yuan Jiang and other guests also participated in the discussion.
