On the morning of April 22, the Launch of IMF World Economic Outlook was held in Renmin University of China. The event was jointly hosted by IMF Resident Representative Office in China and International Monetary Institute (IMI) at Renmin University of China, and co-organized by China International Futures Co., Ltd. and China International Finance Society.

        Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China, Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China, Ms. Sonali Das, Senior Economist from IMF Research Department, Prof. Wu Xiaoqiu, Dean of Academy of China Capital Market and Former Vice President of Renmin University, Mr. Wei Benhua, Former Deputy Administrator of State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Former IMF Executive Director for China, Prof. Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean of Academy of China Capital Market of Renmin University, Mr. Chen Weidong, Director of Research Institute of Bank of China and Secretary General of China International Finance Society, Prof. Zhang Chengsi, Associate Dean of School of Finance of Renmin University, among other experts and scholars from financial management departments, research institutes and financial institutions from all around the world, presented at the meeting and delivered speeches, and more than ten media outlets were invited to the event. The meeting was chaired by Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, Former Director General of International Department of PBoC and Former IMF Executive Director for China.

        In his welcome speech, Mr. Zhang Zhixiang said that the offline launch, after over a year since the last one, provided a rare opportunity for face-to-face communication. The World Economic Outlook released by the IMF not long ago sent a positive signal. Meanwhile, the report also mentions various challenges facing countries at present. Economic recoveries are diverging across countries, regions and provinces, for example. He quoted Ms. Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, as saying that the world is now facing a critical turning point where we hope to give everyone a fair and equal opportunity and help people achieve economic recovery through policy support.

        Professor Zhang Chengsi mentioned in his opening speech that the global economy showed an obvious recovery trend in the first quarter of this year, and the World Economic Outlook in April 2021 made an upward revision on the projections for global economic growth for 2021 and 2022. As a developing country with good prospects for recovery, China will implement the new development concepts of innovation, green, coordination, openness and sharing, and further promote high-quality and sound economic development. On the other hand, the IMF pointed out in its report that large divergences in economic recovery speeds across and within countries may give rise to higher inequality. China will uphold the concept of building a community of shared future for mankind, remain committed to makingCovid-19 vaccines a public good that is accessible and affordable to all, and work closely together with the rest of the world in economic policies to mitigate climate change, promote digital transformation and restrict cross-border profit transfer.

        Mr. Steven Barnett made the first keynote speech. He pointed out that the most important theme of this World Economic Outlook is the recovery of economic growth this year, but the world economy still faces many challenges and uncertainties, including the uneven economic recovery across and within countries. Spillover effects of policies in developed countries and inflation in various countries are also important topics. He expressed the hope to turn the COVID-19 crisis into an opportunity for economic recovery and create a future-oriented economic landscape. Mentioning “a shot in the arm”, he emphasized fair access to vaccines. He also stressed the importance of climate friendliness. To ensure sustained economic recovery, there must be tools. For example, the carbon pricing mechanism should be fine-tuned and green finance should be encouraged to meet the global goals of mitigating climate change. Inequality and returning to poverty are important macro issues hampering economic growth. After the crisis broke out, countries introduced various fiscal and financial arrangements. The IMF also provided financial assistance to countries hit by the crisis and planned to allocate Special Drawing Rights (SDR) worth 650 billion dollars to its member countries. Relatively controllable inflationary pressures in various countries, transparent policies in developed countries and more stable policy frameworks in emerging markets provided a buffer period for policy spillover effects.

        Next, Mr. Li Xin gave a speech on the economic outlook of the Asia-Pacific region. He mentioned that the economy of the Asia-Pacific region began to recover in the third quarter of 2020, but the overall recovery was unbalanced. According to the baseline projections, the Asia-Pacific region as a whole will grow by 7.6% in 2021. Within the region, China and India are expected to grow by 8.4% and 12.5% respectively in 2021. The developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region have experienced positive recoveries. However, some ASEAN countries with repeated outbreaks are facing uncertainty in economic growth. According to the baseline projections, the main risks in Asia-Pacific region are as follows: (1) Risks from vaccines, including uneven vaccination rates and repeated outbreaks caused by virus variation; (2) Changes in the external environment, for example, the rising interest rate in the United States has a negative spillover effect on emerging Asian markets; (3) The risks of sovereign debt and corporate debt are rising; (4) Continued downside risks of technology decoupling between China and the United States. He further provided policy recommendations: (1) Offering fairer vaccination and employment opportunities; (2) Taking differentiated policy orientation to help dynamic enterprises and introduce them into the market; (3) Restarting the trade reform to support growth; (4) Supporting the transformation to green growth.

        Ms. Sonali Das attended the meeting virtually from Washington DC and delivered a speech. She said that the epidemic may have unique transmission mechanism compared with the previous ones, which leads to misallocation of funds and resources after the epidemic. According to historical experience, most countries cannot fully recover in medium-term output after an economic recession. Although some industries greatly affected by the epidemic don’t have a high weight in production network, there is still a significant spillover effect. Projections for the medium-term output growth were revised down from 4% to 3% due to the epidemic. Comparatively, the global financial crisis takes an especially heavy toll on the financial industry, and the effect lasts longer. Generally speaking, the average income level, economic sector structure, fiscal policy and scale of epidemic response can explain the differences in the performance of various economies. From the perspectives of current impact, vaccination rate and the expectation of follow-up policies, emerging countries and low-income countries have weaker prospects than developed countries, and they will suffer sustained harm in the longer period. In the long run, the impact on industries is mainly a deep recession driven by the loss of total factor productivity. This influence may lead to bankruptcy of some enterprises, especially in contact-intensive industries. We need to focus on the transmission channels of future long-term losses, and take corresponding countermeasures.

        Subsequently, Professor Wu Xiaoqiu delivered a keynote speech. He first introduced the basic situation of China’s economy. The “14th Five-Year Plan” has determined that Chin’s economy should be basically above the criteria of GDP for developed countries recognized by international organizations including IMF, OECD and the United Nations. With a growth rate of 6%, China’s per capita GDP should be around 15,000 US dollars by 2025. He further analyzed the four opportunities for China’s future development. First, improving Sino-U.S. relations. Sino-U.S. relations are important bilateral relations in the world, and a stable Sino-U.S. relations will stabilize the global landscape. The two governments, therefore, should focus on improving bilateral relations. Second, improving the market economic system and deepening reform. The most important symbol of successful reform is that people are motivated, and the core of reform is marketization. Third, improving the income of low-and middle-income groups. The driving force of economic development comes from low-and middle-income groups. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the income of low-income groups should be doubled, passing the lowest threshold for consideration as a developed country. Fourth, enhancing the ability of scientific and technological innovation. Natural resources are not enough to support China to become a developed country, and only scientific and technological innovation will allow China to join the ranks of developed countries.

        The panel discussion, chaired by IMI researcher Liu Hongwei, was centered on the theme of “economic recovery and sustainable development”. During the discussion, Chen Weidong proposed three factors that should be paid attention to in the stage of economic recovery. First, the progress of epidemic control; second, the impact of super fiscal stimulus policies and ultra-loose monetary policies of various countries on future economic recovery; third, the impact of geopolitics on the world. Zhao Xijun pointed out that we are transitioning from the epidemic to the post-epidemic economy. After the transition is completed this year and next, the world will enter a relatively stable post-epidemic period. In this transition process, we should pay attention to three potential risks: repeated epidemic outbreaks, unstable policy changes, and the burden caused by the epidemic. Wei Benhua believed that risks lie in unequal vaccine distribution across the globe and the WHO’s project of COVAX should be supported. In addition, reasonable measures should be taken to deal with policy spillover effects. Wei also expressed confidence in the future of China's economy. Steven Barnett pointed out that the epidemic shows that in an interconnected world, we need to work with each other in trade, taxation, health care and other fields to solve the problems we face. Li Xin said that the momentum of consumption in China has slowed down recently due to the epidemic. In 2020, infrastructure investment accounted for 80% of GDP growth, while consumption has a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore, we need to maintain the investment-driven growth. In addition, automation, digitization and redistribution of the labor market are very important for realizing the mid-term economic recovery. Policy support should be tilted in favor of green and environment-friendly growth, and vulnerable families should be supported to ensure that everyone benefits fairly from the historical transformation.