Steve H. Hanke:Heading for Trade War with China

美国自1975年以来每年都出现贸易逆差。这也不足为奇，美国的开支比储蓄多，这种赤字是美国通过向其他国家近乎无止尽的贷款填补的。开支多于储蓄且出口大于进口的经济体，向美国提供资金以资助其巨额支出。

日本以及近来的中国一直是美国的主要债权国。 亚洲对美国的出口并非直接的易货交易，而是通过信贷支付。 这造成了亚洲巨额贸易顺差，主要是制成品贸易以及对美国债权的增加。美国对这些经济体都有贸易赤字和资本账户盈余。美国的贸易逆差绝大多数都源于对中国和日本的贸易。日本的份额从20世纪90年代初几近60％的峰值下降到今天的10％左右，而中国的份额从20世纪90年代初的20％稳步上升到今天的48％。

美国的储蓄不足导致了制造业的空心化。 这个问题总统当选人唐纳德·特朗普从未提及。 相反，他声称，美国制造业被外国人“生吞”。这些外国人采取不公平的贸易做法，人为地操纵汇率使其保持在较低水平。 这一论述毫无意义。

要理解为什么特朗普和包括新当选的参议院少数族裔领导人查尔斯·舒默在内其他政府人员有如此错误而危险的想法，我们应该看看日本。从20世纪70代初到1995年，日本被视为美国的经济敌人。 政府中的重商主义者认为，日本不公平的贸易做法造成了美国的贸易赤字，摧毁了美国制造业。华盛顿方面还称，若日元兑美元升值，美国的问题将得到解决。

华盛顿方面甚至试图说服东京相信日元的不断升值将对日本有利。不幸的是，日本不胜美国压力，日元升值。 日元从1971年的360日元兑换1美元升值到1995年为80日元一美元。这种大规模的升值并没有导致日本对美国的出口陷入困境，日本在2000年之前对美国的贸易逆差贡献一直都位居第一。

1995年4月，当时的财政部长罗伯特·鲁宾事后才意识到，日元的过度上涨导致日本经济陷入通货紧缩的泥潭。 因此，美国停止向日本政府鼓吹日元的价值，鲁宾也开始提出如今已闻名的“强势美元”口号。虽然这项政策转变在当时受到欢迎，但仍然为时已晚。 即使在今天，日本仍旧遭受着日元升值造成的混乱。

二十年后，中国代替日本，成为美国的经济头敌，抨击中国在美国形成潮流。 特朗普几乎没有哪一天不责骂中国，指责中国不公平的贸易惯例和汇率操纵。他一边威胁要对中国施加惩罚性关税，另一边与蔡英文通话，打破了数十年的外交协议。这带来不安的迹象，预示着前方有更多暴风雪。

特朗普的支出和税收承诺将扩大美国支出和储蓄之间的差距。这将导致美国贸易赤字的膨胀。 一旦这种情况发生，考虑到中国对赤字的高贡献率，毫无疑问特朗普将把矛头指向中国。全球最大的两个经济体之间的贸易战争似乎一触即发。

原文如下：

The US has recorded a trade deficit in every year since 1975. This is not surprising — America spends more than it saves, and this deficit is financed by means of a virtually unlimited US line of credit with the rest of the world. Economies that save more than they spend, and which record corresponding trade surpluses, ship funds to the US to finance America’s insatiable spending.

Japan and, more recently, China have been the primary creditors for the savings-deficient US. Rather than a straight-forward barter-like transaction, Asia’s exports to the US are paid for by credits to the US. The result is a huge trade surplus for Asia, largely in manufactured goods, and a build-up of dollar claims against the US. The US runs a trade deficit and a capital account surplus with these economies. China and Japan have been responsible for the lion’s share of the US trade deficit. Japan’s contribution has fallen from a peak of just under 60% in the early 1990s to around 10% today, while China’s contribution has steadily risen from around 20% in the early 1990s to 48% today.

The US savings deficiency has contributed to the hollowing out of American manufacturing. This is one subject which President-elect Donald Trump has never mentioned. Instead, he claims that American manufacturing has been eaten alive by foreigners who adopt unfair trade practices and manipulate their currencies to artificially weak levels. This argument is nonsense.

To appreciate why Trump — and many others in Washington, including Charles Schumer, the newly-elected Senate minority leader — are so misguided and dangerous, one should look to Japan. From the early 1970s until 1995, Japan was viewed as America’s economic enemy. The mercantilists in Washington asserted that unfair Japanese trading practices caused the trade deficit and destroyed US manufacturing. Washington also asserted that, were the yen to appreciate against the dollar, America’s problems would be solved.

Washington even tried to convince Tokyo that an ever-appreciating yen would be good for Japan. Unfortunately, the Japanese caved into US pressure, and the yen appreciated. The currency moved from 360 yen to the dollar in 1971 to 80 in 1995. This massive appreciation didn’t put a dent in Japan’s exports to the US, with Japan contributing more than any other country to the US trade deficit until 2000.

In April 1995, Robert Rubin, then Treasury secretary, belatedly realised that the yen’s overdone rise was driving the Japanese economy into a deflationary quagmire. In consequence, the US stopped hounding the Japanese government about the value of the yen, and Rubin began to evoke his now-famous strong-dollar mantra. While this policy switch was welcome, it was too late. Even today, Japan continues to suffer from the mess created by the yen’s appreciation.

Two decades later, China rather than Japan is America’s economic enemy. China-bashing is in vogue. Hardly a day goes by without Trump railing against China, accusing it of unfair trade practices and currency manipulation. Against the background of his threat to impose punitive tariffs on the Chinese, the spat over Trump’s Friday phone call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking decades of diplomatic protocol, offers an uncomfortable foretaste of more squalls ahead.

Trump’s spending and tax promised will widen the gap between America’s spending and savings. This will cause America’s trade deficit to balloon. When that happens, in view of China’s high contribution to the deficit, Trump will undoubtedly point an accusatory finger at China. A trade war between the world’s top two economies looks increasingly likely.