熊园：我国外贸仍将负重前行

最新数据显示，以美元计价，我国10月出口同比负增长7.3%（前值-10%），进口同比负增长1.4%（前值-1.9%），贸易顺差491亿美元（前值420亿美元）。总体看，10月进出口同比跌幅收窄，贸易顺差规模扩大，但均不及预期，数据有所好转但难言改善。在国际贸易环境持续低迷和全球贸易保护主义日趋升温的大背景下，加之美国新当选总统特朗普对外经济政策的核心是贸易保护，未来我国贸易下行压力仍然较大，短期内难以真正回暖。

其一，出口增速回升，外需依旧疲软。10月-7.3%的出口增速低于市场预期的-5.3%，延续了今年4月连续第7个月同比下滑的态势。今年以来人民币贬值加速和8月以来美国、欧元区和日本等发达经济体的制造业PMI回升，但仍未实质性提振出口（可能也与汇率传导和外需传导均存在时滞效应有关），表明我国外需依旧疲软，也和“10月份我国制造业PMI回升但新订单出口PMI回落”形成印证。

具体地，按地区看，对主要国家和地区跌幅均有所收窄，对东盟表现最为显著，对香港表现较差。单月看，对东盟出口同比增速大幅回升9.9个百分点至-0.9%，去年高基数导致对韩国出口同比增速大跌至-18.1%，巴西经济回暖带动对巴西出口增速由负转正至4.4%。前10个月看，对主要国家和地区的出口累计同比均为负增长，其中美国（-7.7%）、东盟（-7.5%）和香港（-7.9%）表现相对更差。按贸易方式看，一般贸易跌幅收窄至-8.3%（前值-12%），而进料加工贸易跌幅进一步扩大至-9.3%（前值-7.6%）。按产品看，受益于人民币贬值，纺织、服装、鞋类、箱包、玩具等出口改善明显，其中纺织同比跌幅大幅收窄13.8个百分点，玩具类则连续两月保持同比24%的高增长。

其二，进口跌幅收窄，内需改善的持续性尚需观察。10月进口同比下跌1.4%（略低于预期的-1%），跌幅较9月收窄0.5个百分点。进口增速回升主要源于煤炭、原油、铁矿石等大宗商品进口价格上涨，其中，10月煤及褐煤进口价格环比上涨21%。从进口金额看，原油进口同比增长0.6%，实现了2014年以来第二次正增长，铁矿石进口金额则连续三个月上涨；相比之下，谷物与大豆进口量均连续五个月负增长，其中谷物进口金额同比跌幅较9月扩大13.8个百分点至-42.8%。农产品进口持续数月表现不佳，一定程度上表明国内需求拉动作用依旧较弱。此外，从绝对量看，10月进口金额自今年2月以来首次环比负增长，看来内需虽有所改善，但能否持续有待进一步观察。

其三，贸易顺差环比回升但同比大跌，贸易环境趋于恶化。10月贸易顺差环比增71亿美元至491亿美元（低于预期517亿美元），同比则下跌20%，跌幅较9月收窄9.6个百分点但较三季度扩大9.3个百分点，表明我国贸易环境趋于恶化。具体看，前10个月，欧盟、美国、东盟、日本仍为我国主要贸易伙伴，或因美国大选不稳定性较大，对美国进出口下降，但对欧盟、东盟、日本等贸易伙伴进出口正增长。

展望未来，我国外贸形势依旧严峻，尚看不到明显回暖的迹象。一方面，全球贸易持续低迷。数据显示，全球货物贸易增速已连续4年低于经济增速，世贸组织最新预测2016年世界贸易量增速仅为1.7%，这是2008年美国金融危机以来的最低增速，预示着我国外需短期内难以显著改善。另一方面，近年来，贸易保护、反全球化日益升温。英国脱欧和特朗普当选很大程度是民粹主义的胜利，民粹主义又往往与孤立主义、去全球化、贸易保护主义等紧密联系在一起,这将对贸易自由化产生较大负面冲击。特别地，特朗普贸易保护的竞选主张很大可能会付诸行动，这在拖累全球经济复苏步伐的同时，中美之间的贸易摩擦有可能增大，对我国本已疲弱不堪的贸易无疑是雪上加霜。

No sign of recovery in international trade

China's foreign trade will remain under pressure in the near future even though October's figures showed better performance compared with the same period the last year. There is no sign of recovery in the short term.

Exports in October fell 7.3 percent year-on-year. The decline was smaller than that of a year ago, which was 10 percent. Imports declined 1.4 percent, which was also better than the previous number - 1.9 percent. The trade surplus increased to $49.1 billion (45.8 billion euros; 39.5 billion) from the $42 billion a year ago.

The October figures were improved, but they were still less than forecast. China's foreign trade is hard to pick up, as the international trade environment remained weak and US President-elect Donald Trump vowed to push trade protection policies.

The overseas market was not strong. It was forecast that the negative October exports could be narrowed to 5.3 percent, but the actual number was 7.3 percent, which was the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Depression of renminbi was accelerated. Manufacturing industries in developed countries and economies, such as the United States, the eurozone and Japan were improved. However, those factors did not boost China's exports. New export orders in October declined, even though the manufacturing purchasing managers' index picked up.

China's exports to the ASEAN countries and regions performed better in October than pervious months. A 9.9 percentage point rise narrowed the export decline to 0.9 percent in this region. On the other side, the decline with South Korea expanded to 18.1 percent year-on-year, caused by the relatively high base in 2015. Exports to Brazil grew 4.4 percent as the country's economy recovered.

From January to October, China's exports to major countries and regions saw declines. The poorest three were -7.7 percent to the United States, -7.5 percent to the ASEAN countries and -7.9 percent to Hong Kong.

Helped by the renminbi's depression, exports of textiles, clothing, footwear, bags, luggage and toys rose in October. Exports of toys increased 24 percent year-on-year in two consecutive months.

The domestic market was improved with imports performing better in October, but there is doubt whether this improvement can persist. In October, imports slowed to 1.4 percent year-on-year, slightly lower than the forecast of 1 percent. But the decline was narrowed 0.5 percentage points compared with September. That was the result of the rise of commodity prices. The import prices of coal or lignite increased 21 percent compared with September. Other commodities such as crude oil and iron ore also saw consecutive price rises in the past two or three months.

However, the imported value of agricultural products such as corn and soybeans declined in the past five months. The imported value of corn, for example, dropped another 13.8 percentage points to 42.8 percent in October compared with the previous month. The poor performance indicated that domestic demand was not strong enough to push the imports.

In addition, import value saw a month-on-month decline in October, the first since February. It is too early to say that domestic demand has recovered, as the improvement needs more time to be proved.

Compared with September, the trade surplus increased in October, but compared with the same period last year it plunged. This indicates that the international trade environment is deteriorating.

The trade surplus in October rose $7.1 billion month-on-month to $49.1 billion, but was lower than the expected $51.7 billion. It was also down 20 percent year-on-year. The drop narrowed 9.6 percentage points compared with September. However, the drop was 9.3 percentage points more than that of the third quarter.

The European Union, the United States, the ASEAN group and Japan remained China's major trade partners. Exports to the EU, ASEAN and Japan continued to rise, but exports to the US saw a decline, probably due to instability caused by the presidential election.

There is no sign of recovery in global trade. Data show that the growth of the global cargo trade was less than the global economic growth for four consecutive years. The latest forecast from the World Trade Organization said trade growth will be only 1.7 percent in 2016, the lowest number since the financial crisis of 2008. This indicates that the overseas market will remain weak in the short term.

At the same time, trade protection and anti-globalization have begun to surge in recent years. Brexit and Donald Trump's winning of the US presidential election were the results of populism, which were partners of isolationism, deglobalization and protectionism, and will likely have a negative impact on trade liberalization.

In addition, Trump is likely to promote trade protectionism after he becomes president in January, according to what he said during the election campaign. This will not only hamper the recovery of the global economy but will aggravate the trade friction between China and the US as it weakens China's foreign trade.

The author is a researcher with the International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.