贲圣林：人民币，世界人民的货币？

贲圣林教授在纽约《人民币国际化报告2015》发布会上的欢迎致辞

各位中国人民大学校友们，来自工商业和公共机构的朋友们，媒体界和学术界同仁，来自纽约和美国其他地区、来自中国和全世界的朋友们，女士们、先生们，大家上午好！

首先，请允许我代表中国人民大学国际货币研究所（以下简称“IMI”）和中国人民大学校长陈雨露先生，向来到纽约出席“人民币国际化论坛”的各位朋友表示热烈的欢迎。特别要欢迎从中国和世界其他地区远道而来的朋友。

自从2009年中国国务院批准开展跨境贸易人民币结算试点以来，人民币国际化在中国国内和国际都成为了热门话题。从2012年起，IMI每年都发布《人民币国际化报告》，追踪人民币国际化发展趋势、重大进步以及在国际社会中获得更多承认过程中要面对的障碍。同时我们也在中国，主要在北京举办了很多关于人民币国际化的论坛。不过，我们从人民币国际化一开始便意识到，人民币国际化不仅仅是中国的事情。正因为这样，它对于整个全球社会而言，也是一个机遇。所以人民币国际化需要在中国和全球范围内得到理解、接受和认可，即人民币要成为现存国际货币体系的补充。正是基于此，我们不仅在北京和中国其他地区比如香港多次举办人民币国际化的主题论坛，同时我们也走出国门，在世界其他国家举办“人民币路演”。去年，IMI与交通银行、货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）、歌德大学合作，在伦敦和法兰克福进行了路演。IMI的代表也被邀请在拉美和非洲等地的论坛上发表演讲。上个月，IMI与中国的央行合作，在哈萨克斯坦阿拉木图举行了发布会。今天，IMI来到纽约这个世界金融之都和美元全球中心，讨论人民币国际化这一重要话题。我们想要达到的目标是什么？这个论坛不是为了在人民币国际化话题上教导他人。那样的话意味着我们了解的更多！而即使我们是多了解一些，也没有资格作老师。因此，这次论坛没有收取任何学费（笑）。我们也不是为人民币国际化或者中国在这方面的观点辩护，就像在国会作证或者像我在美国21年前求学的时候为了通过博士学位毕业论文答辩那样。那么我们的目的是什么？我们在此和各位分享有关人民币国际化这个话题我们已知和未知的；其次是聆听你们关于人民币国际化的观点、建议和担忧；最后如果可能的话，我们能回答你们所关心的问题。

为什么中国要实施所谓的“人民币国际化”战略？遇到这个话题的时候，很多人开始关注背后的真实动机，许多人也有不同的观点和解释。但有趣的是，绝大多数人会开始把实力不断增长的中国和财力可能下降的美国做比较，似乎以为人民币国际化只是中美双边的问题，似乎认为这是两国货币之间的零和博弈，似乎认为人民国际化必然有利中国而不可避免的对美元产生不利影响。

我并不知道该如何回答或解释上述情况，但是我想和大家分享下我们经常能够听到的一些说法：

中国在许多行业领先于世界，比如钢铁、水泥、铜、汽车、电视机、微波炉、空调、冰箱、洗衣机、鞋……等等，这个名单还可以继续。很肯定的说，在任何生产“有形”或“可触”产品的行业，中国几乎都占据无人能及的领导地位。

中国也是全球最大的贸易国。如今的中国是全球43个国家的第一大出口市场；而1994年时，仅有2个国家以中国为最大出口国。作为对比，美国现在是32个国家的第一大出口市场，而在1994年这个数字是44个。

中国还同时拥有最大的外汇储备，且正在积极探索更好的使用途径。就国内生产总值（GDP）而言，有些报告（基于购买力平价理论）认为中国已成为世界第一大经济体，占据全球GDP的17%，领先于占比16%的美国。然而以通行的市场汇率来计算，中国其实仅占全球经济规模的14%，仍大幅落后于美国的23%。

不足为奇的是，在美国，有一些人对中国的崛起和人民币国际化有所担忧，甚至视为严重威胁。但是请允许我来分享这个故事的另外一面。根据《经济学人》近期的一项调查，美国在众多领域拥有的领先地位描绘了完全不同的一幅画面。

• 在全球前20所大学中，美国拥有15所。
• 好莱坞和硅谷统治了全球的票房和风投。
• 在今天我们所处的以云、电子商务、社交媒体和共享经济为标志的所谓“新纪元”中，美国公司掌握全球61%的社交媒体用户资源，处理着全球91%的搜索内容，发明了99%智能手机用户的操作系统。
• 美国在全球金融和国际货币体系中领导地位也在不断加强。比如华尔街投行的全球市场份额升至今天的50%。美国的基金公司管理着全球55%的资产，而10年前这一数字为44%。

基于IMI编制的货币国际化指数（CII）的计算，美元仍然保持其世界主要货币的霸主地位。与此相比，尽管人民币在过去几年取得了令人鼓舞的进步，但其在世界贸易、金融和储备货币等使用方面的综合份额仍然不到3%。

为什么会这样？为什么中国在所谓传统实体经济占据领先，但在金融和新经济方面却相当落后？难道是因为不公平的现行国际体制？是否是西方的阴谋？与此同时，西方人士也在问：人民币国际化是否是中国意欲推翻美元地位的阴谋？是否是中国在为主宰全球金融体系而建立人民币像美元所拥有的地位那样所做出的努力？人民币国际化是否一定意味着美元作为国际货币的地位下降？是否对美国不利？如何保证人民币的崛起是对现有失衡的全球体系的一种补充？人民币国际化应该走多远？

对以上这些问题，我们并不知道所有的答案，但希望今天的论坛能够帮助我们得到一些答案，消除部分误解，减少一些疑虑。

今天的论坛安排非常好，我们邀请到了很多著名的意见领袖、政策顾问和制定者以及有关行业的专家。

在正式宣布论坛开始之前，请允许我简要介绍下中国人民大学以及国际货币研究所。中国人民大学字面含义为中国人民的大学，就像中国人民银行是中国的央行，人民币是人民的货币一样。人民大学是中国共产党建立的第一所大学，诞生于1937年抗日战争的烽火中。IMI成立于2009年，我们的首场圆桌会议可以追溯到2007年。是专注于全球金融体系和人民币国际化领域研究的领先的中国学术机构。

中国人民大学和IMI的创立都是基于某种理想主义精神，同样可以说人民币国际化也是如此。但是我们知道，人民币国际化是非常复杂的课题。人民币国际化不仅仅是中国单边的愿望，也不仅是中美双边问题，因为有更多的利益相关国家，超越了中国和美国两国的范围。人民币国际化也不仅仅是货币、金融或者经济问题，还牵涉到技术、政治、外交以及法律、全球治理等诸多因素。所以人民币国际化是个复杂的过程，需要经历漫漫长途。但是，正如中国有句谚语：“千里之行，始于足下”，我们有理由相信，过去我们所做的努力和今天正在做的（人民币国际化论坛）超越了千里之行的第一步。不到十年前，中国境外很少有人听说过人民币，或者知道人民币意指人民的货币。而在今天，许多人不仅知道人民币并且开始使用人民币进行货币兑换、贸易结算和金融交易。也许有一天，人民币不仅仅是中国人民的人民币，还会成为世界人民的货币。

谢谢！预祝大家度过一个愉快的早晨。

RMB - The People’s Currency of The World

Dear fellow alumni of Renmin University of China, friends from industry, public institutions， media and academia, friends from New York, the rest of US, China and the rest of the world, Ladies and gentlemen, good morning!

First of all, on behalf of International Monetary Institute (“IMI”) and on behalf of President CHEN of Renmin University of China, I would like to extend to all of you our warmest welcome to the Forum on RMB Internationalization here in New York. To all of you who travelled from China or other parts of the world, a special welcome to New York!

RMB Internationalization has been a hot topic both in China and internationally since 2009, the year when China started allowing the cross-border usage of RMB in trade and finance. Since 2012, we at International Monetary Institute have been publishing annual reports on RMB Internationalization, capturing the big trends, the progresses RMB has made and the hindrances it faces in its broader adoption by the international community. We also held various forums in China, notably in Beijing on this subject. But we know from the beginning that RMB Internationalization is NOT just a Chinese initiative, it is an opportunity for the global community and therefore requires the joint undertaking of both China and the rest of the world to have the common understanding, acceptance and adoption of RMB as an alternative complementing the existing global financial and monetary system.  In this connection, we have held various forums in Beijing and other parts of China, including Hong Kong on this important subject. We also started going abroad, holding what we sometimes called “RMB Roadshows”, in other countries. Last year, in partnership with Bank of Communication and OMFIF in London and Gothe University in Frankfurt, we went to London and Frankfurt for similar events there, and our representatives also were invited to speak on several forums in Latin American and Africa. Last month we collaborated with the Chinese central bank and held an event in Almaty, Kazakstan. Today we are gathering here in New York, the capital of global finance and US Dollar, to discuss about this same important subject! What are we here to achieve? The Forum is NOT meant to teach anybody about the subject as teaching would imply that we know a lot more than you do about the subject! Granted that we know a bit more but not that more so we are not qualified as the teacher here, that is why we are not charging any tuition or fee for this event. We are NOT here to defend RMB Internationalization or China’s position either, like testifying in front of the congress or defending a thesis for PhD degree, as I did 21 years ago in this country. So what are we here for? We are here to share what we know and what we do not know; secondly we are here to listen and hear what you all have to say about the subject, suggestions and concerns; and lastly we are here to address some of your questions and concerns, if we can.

Why do China undertake the so-called RMB Internationalization initiative? People start focusing on the real motives behind it. Many people will give you various and different answers. When they confront this subject, most, if not all of them, will also compare China’s rising power with the possibly declining fortune of the United States, as if RMB Internationalization were a bilateral matter between US and China, as if it were a zero-sum game between the two currencies, as if the internationalization of RMB would be necessarily good for China and inevitably be bad for US$.

I do not know how to answer or explain the above, but let me share with you the following that we often hear:

China is a dominant producer in many industries. Steel, cement, copper, automotive vehicles, TV sets, microwave oven, air-conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, shoes… the list goes on, it is safe to say that in any industry that produces tangible and touchable goods, we are almost always the unrivalled leader.

We are also the largest trade nation. Today China is the biggest export market for 43 countries, in 1994, only two countries exported more to China than any other market.  In comparison, today America is the biggest export market for 32 countries, while the number was 44 in 1994.

We also have the largest foreign exchange reserve that we are still actively looking for good ways to deploy. In terms of GDP, some reports already suggest that China is the world No 1 already, representing 17% of the world with America’s share standing at 16%, though based on the prevailing exchange rate, China only represents 14% of the world’s total, while US stands at 23%.

Not surprisingly there have been some anxiety and even fear here in the US about China’s rise and RMB internationalization, which are perceived as serious threats. But allow me share other side of the story! Based on a recent Economist survey, America’s leadership in a number of fields paints a totally different picture.

• US has 15 of the world’s 20 leading universities;
• Hollywood and Silicon Valley dominate the world’s box offices and venture capital financing
• In the so-called “new era” based on the cloud, e-commerce, social media and the sharing economy, American firms now host 61% of the world’s social-media users, undertake 91% of its searches and invented the operating systems of 99% of its smartphone users.
• America has increased its leadership in global finance and the world monetary system. The global market share of Wall Street investment banks has risen to 50%. American fund managers run 55% of the world’s assets under management, up from 44% a decade ago.

At IMI, we have compiled an internationalization index: Currency Internationalization Index (CII)! Based on our calculation USD remains the dominant currency while Chinese RMB, despite some encouraging progress over the past few years, represent a less than 3% market share, measured in its composite usage in trade, finance and reserve currencies.

Why is it so? Why is there such a big disconnect between China’s leadership of the so-called traditional real economy and dwarf in finance and new economy? Is it because of the unfair incumbent system? Is there a conspiracy by the West? In the meantime, people in the West also wonder: is RMB internationalization China’s conspiracy to topple the US$, an effort to dominate the global financial system just like the USD has done? Would RMB Internationalization necessarily mean the decline of USD as a global currency? Will it bad for the US? How can we ensure that the rise of the RMB will complement the unbalanced global system we have? How far should RMB Internationalization go?

We do not have the answers to all these questions, but hopefully today’s conference will help us have some answers, clarify some of the misunderstandings and mitigate some concerns.

We have a great program today featuring some of the prominent opinion leaders, policy advisors and industry practitioners in this field.

Before we commence the official program, let me say a few words about Renmin University of China and IMI. Renmin University of China, meaning literally, People’s University of China, is the university equivalent of People’s Bank of China – the central bank, while RMB literally means “people’s currency”.  Renmin University is the first university founded by the Chinese communist party in 1937, when all-out Sino-Japanese War broke out.  IMI, officially founded in 2009, traced its origin to 2007, when we started the first roundtable event. It has since established itself as a leading Chinese research institution in the area of global financial system and RMB internationalization.

Renmin University and IMI were founded with certain idealism. The same can be said about RMB internationalization. But we know RMB Internationalization is complex. It is not a domestic China initiative or Sino-US bilateral matter, the stakeholder countries go beyond just China or US.  It is not just a monetary or financial or economic matter, it involves technology, politics, diplomacy as well as legal and global governance issues.  Therefore RMB Internationalization will be a complex process ad long journey as well. But as the old Chinese saying: “a journey of one thousand miles starts with the first footstep”, we are confident that what we have done and are doing today will represent more than the first footstep. Less than ten years ago, very few people outside China knew of RMB – the people’s currency, today a lot of people know that and have started using them for exchanges, trade and finance. Maybe one day RMB will become the people’s currency, not just in China, but globally.

Thank you! I wish you all a wonderful morning.